Wall Street firms anticipate strong results when Microsoft reports earnings Jan. 28, yet a valuation reset across the software sector is leading analysts to dial back stock projections despite positive fundamentals.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Overweight rating on Thursday while cutting its price target to $590 from $639. UBS followed suit, reducing its target to $600 from $650 while keeping a Buy rating. Shares advanced 1.5% to $457.70 on Friday, though the stock has declined 6.7% year to date through Thursday.
The revised targets display broader market dynamics rather than deteriorating business prospects. Software valuations are compressing industrywide, analysts remarked, creating headwinds even for companies expected to deliver solid operational performance.
Azure—the company’s cloud computing and artificial intelligence platform—will command investor attention. Management guided for 37% revenue growth in the fiscal second quarter, down from 40% the prior period. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Thomas Blakey sees room for upside, citing bullish market checks.
“Our checks came in positively for AI/Azure demand and Copilot adoption as customers are becoming increasingly focused on realizing the benefits of AI solutions,” Blakey wrote, noting partners are securing larger expansion deals with major clients.
Despite a favorable view of fundamentals, Blakey pointed to multiple software compressions that’re pressuring Microsoft’s valuation. The firm now values shares at 29 times forward earnings—a discount to the trailing 12-month average.
UBS echoed that assessment. Analyst Karl Keirstead raised Azure growth estimates and suggested the Street’s 2027 capital expenditure forecasts—a concern for some investors—are overstated. While Microsoft merits a premium to peers, current sector conditions require a lower target.
“Given the evident de-rating across the software sector, we’re trimming our PT from $650 to $600,” Keirstead wrote.
Not everyone agrees that the reassessment is warranted. Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $650 target Friday, arguing consistent earnings beats and guidance raises should eventually translate to valuation expansion. At current levels, the firm said, the stock does not capture the company’s long-term growth path.
